This week marks the inflection point at which consumers are backing off from asking “When is the iPhone 5 release date” in favor of asking “Where can I see pictures of the iPhone 5 prototype” in a tradeoff which, for the moment, bought Apple some additional time as it continues to drag its heels. The prototype incident also has the benefit of taking coverage and attention away from rising rivals like Samsung’s Galaxy S2. Tired of waiting for the iPhone 5 to finally reach the market (here’s more on the iPhone 5 release date), and thinking of going with an S2 instead? Oh right, Apple goes and supposedly loses an iPhone 5 unit in a bar and suddenly the flurry of coverage reminds you that the iPhone 5 is A) coming soon, and B) the one you wanted all along.
But this week’s iPhone 5 development, whether embarrassing gaffe or clever stunt or fabricated story which never happened, won’t buy Apple much time as it continues to sputter slowly toward serving up an iPhone 5 release date, even as the iPhone 4 enters its fifteenth month of being Apple’s flagship smartphone. Would-be buyers want answers, and the tone has shifted. Back in the spring, those looking for information on the iPhone 5 were being whimsical about a product which they knew wouldn’t surface for another season. As summer progressed, that attitude turned toward one more of concern. And now, as summer winds down headed into Labor Day, the most frequent attitude we see expressed among readers toward the iPhone 5 and its fading release date is anger. That sets Apple up for an all-or-nothing gambit, and quick, as there are three ways this can go from here…
The first sees the iPhone 5 surface with a release date around October, and it’s a doozy. The specs, features, and design are all more advanced than anyone had predicted, and suddenly most angry waiters forgive Apple for the delays and dive in. By this time, seeing as how competing phones like the S2 go so little coverage back when the iPhone 5 was little more than a report of a prototype, the iPhone 5 will attain nearly all consumer tech coverage during its launch month. The little “oops, where it is” fiasco of the summer will be mostly forgotten…

The second scenario is the most painful one: after all this time, the iPhone 5 either surfaces and is a major disappointment (it’s really another iPhone 4 with just a few better specs wedged in), or it gets pushed all the way to 2012 and an iPhone 4S is released for the holiday season. This will push angry consumers into outright seething anger, as they’ll feel they were made to wait all this time for what is clearly a disappointing result. This scenario would not portend good news for the new Tim Cook era at Apple. However, there’s a third option.

This one sees the iPhone 5 arrive around October and it’s about what had been expected based on iPhone history: faster, modestly bigger screen and better battery life, sexier body style than the iPhone 4, and one or two killer marketable features thrown in, whether they be something fundamental like 4G LTE or something more left-field like FaceTime was last time around. This scenario may not see Apple fully forgiven by all for pushing the iPhone 5 release date so far past summer. But it’s the most likely one, and it’ll be enough to put smiles on the faces of most of those who’ve been waiting for the iPhone 5. Either way, by that time, no one will be talking about the lost iPhone 5 prototype, which at this point may well never surface – if it existed in the first place. Here’s more on the iPhone 5.